Is this RCB’s best shot at the IPL title?

Ten games in, a new look RCB team has won seven games. This has only happened once before — in the 2020 season (RCB went on to lose the last four games, finishing with seven wins and seven losses). Of these seven wins, six have been on the road. After match 50, RCB sits No. 2 on the points table, equal on points with table-toppers MI having played one less game. 

This is one of the most remarkable starts in the history of the Karnataka club, and the Bengaluru faithful cannot help but ask the forbidden question — Ee Sala Cup Namde? (This year the cup is ours?) I would suggest the fans hold their breath for a couple of more weeks, but it is fair to say, this is their best chance to win the trophy that has eluded them all these years. 

Balance

The new RCB coaching staff, composed of head coach Andy Flower, batting coach and mentor Dinesh Karthik and team director Mo Bobat raised heads at the auction. They went with a very anti-RCB approach, roles over big names. Opening batter Virat Kohli is the only real “star” the Bengaluru side has this season. 

Several people, including myself, questioned their buys at the auction. But the coaching staff was convinced they got their players for the season, they were convinced the roles they had defined would work. And to everyone’s surprise, they have. 

RCB has had five different POTMs in their seven wins. Their bowling unit, spearheaded by purple cap holder — Josh Hazlewood is reaping rewards. Bengaluru’s batting has been great, but their bowling has set up games for them more often than not. 

Bowling

Ready for some power-play bowling stats? Here we go:

• RCB has the best economy rate in power-plays this season — 8.43

• They have the second most wickets in power-plays with 17 (MI: 18)

• They have bowled the least extras in power-plays — 14

• They have conceded the third lowest number of sixes in power-plays — 20 (RR: 15, PBKS: 17)

• They have conceded the join-second lowest number of fours in power-plays with PBKS — 58 (KKR, SRH: 53)

It is incredibly rare and almost unheard of for RCB to be this good at bowling. But giving them credit, they have been a decent power-play bowling side over the years, but they often lose their games at the death. This season, that’s different too.

• RCB has the joint-lowest death overs economy rate this season — 10.26 (with MI)

• They are tied for third-most wickets at the death with RR — 18 (MI: 26, CSK, DC: 19)

• They have the third-lowest bowling average at the death — 18.05 (MI: 13.69, CSK: 16.57)

(Side note: MI is a ridiculously good bowling side. Explains their resurgence of winning six consecutive matches)

Hazelwood is setting the league ablaze this season. He has picked up 18 wickets in 10 matches with an economy rate of 8.44 and average of 17.27. He has the lowest strike-rate — 12.27 amongst the top-35 wicket takers this season. With one POTM already, Hazlewood will play a major role in deciding RCB’s fate this season. 

The unorthodox left-arm orthodox spinner — Krunal Pandya has been one of RCB’s best buys in the auction. Let’s rewind to the first match of the season when RCB took on KKR at Eden Gardens. Kolkata was flying high, with 107/2 in 10 overs it was poised for a big total. Krunal Pandya comes into the attack and absolutely changes the game. 

He ended with figures of 3/29 in his four overs. The left-armer was bowling bouncers! As a spinner! RCB’s wicket-keeper Jitesh Sharma did a good job of holding onto some of those bouncers that probably caught him by surprise as much as they did batters. 

Batting

RCB has always been a great batting side. IPL legends such as Chris Gayle, AB de Villiers and Virat Kohli made up RCB’s top three for years. Some of the league’s most iconic partnerships and innings have come from the Bengaluru side. But the format has evolved very quickly over the last few years and RCB haven’t exactly kept up.

In 2020, RCB had the fourth-lowest powerplay run rate — 7.53. In 2022, they had the second-lowest powerplay run rate — 7.25. 2023 and 2024 saw improvements as they had the third and fourth-best powerplay run rates respectively  — 9.25 and 9.73. 

This season, they have been positively mediocre. Fifth best powerplay run rate (9.48) and fourth lowest middle-overs run rate (8.60) is nothing to write home about. They’re around the middle of the pack through the first 16 overs, but it is their death batting that allows them to be mediocre early on. 

RCB has the second best run-rate at the death — 11.96. They are just behind GT (12.33). They have also hit the second most sixes (23), also behind GT (26). Scoring at such a high rate, they have also lost the second-least wickets in the final four overs — 12 (PBKS with 10). 

Their middle-overs batting is what unlocks their death batting. RCB is tied with MI for third-least wickets lost in the middle overs — 25 (GT: 14, DC: 24). 

RCB aren’t outright best in any batting department, but they can stitch together enough average elements to produce a positive output. And all of their batters aren’t even playing at their full potential yet. Opener Phil Salt has had an up and down season, captain Rajat Patidar started off incredibly well but he has tailed off since. But Bengaluru has several impact players who’re putting on a show. 

One of the best stories of the year has been the resurgence of Devdutt Padikkal. Padikkal has scored 230 runs in nine innings at a strike rate of 154.36. This is his highest strike rate ever in any IPL season. He bats at no. 3 and he’s made that position his own, helping the batter at the other end by striking higher and keeping the run-rate going. 

Jitesh Sharma is one of the backbones of RCB’s middle order. He’s scored 121 runs at a strike rate of 147.56. He often has had to rescue Bengaluru’s faltering middle order but he has heavily contributed towards their success. 

RCB bought Tim David in the auction to do exactly what he has been doing this season. David has scored 184 runs, striking at 197.85 and averaging 92. 

But despite contributions across the lineup, RCB’s success rate still depends on how their longest tenured player plays. It depends on how many runs Kohli scores. 

The Kohli factor

Kohli currently sits third in the orange cap race with 443 runs. With six 50+ scores, it is astounding to see his consistency at age 36. With Kohli’s consistency comes a daunting statistic — RCB has won all matches this season where Kohli has scored 25+ and lost all matches where he’s scored below 25. 

This can just be a coincidence but it’s not a statistic Bengaluru would be too proud of. Even a batter as great as Kohli will eventually fail, and if that failure comes in a playoff match, it shouldn’t impact RCB’s chances. They will hope one of their batters can step up if Kohli fails, and with the amount of power that lineup has, there’s a good chance someone will. 

Is this it?

The statistics make it overwhelmingly clear, this is RCB’s best chance at winning it all. But even putting the numbers aside, the eye test tells you so. RCB is winning matches they would’ve lost in other seasons. In their most recent match against DC, they found themselves 26/3 chasing 163. Most other RCB teams would have collapsed and lost, but Kohli and Pandya were able to stitch together a 119-run partnership. 

They won in Chennai for the first time since 2008. They won in Mumbai for the first time since 2015. If you believe in superstitions, this is IPL’s 18th season and player no. 18 is yet to win it all. 

Bengaluru isn’t perfect. There are better teams in the league. But for the team that’s been forever chasing the IPL trophy, they have never been closer. It is going to require an almighty push to break through the nerves. They have the talent, they have the players, the question is, can RCB hold on? Can the Bengaluru faithful finally see Ee Sala Cup Namde come to fruition?