After what has been a thrilling IPL season, the last week has cooled down. Two matches have been washed out, coincidentally, both of Gujarat’s last matches as they finish their 2024 campaign with 5 wins and 7 losses. With the Indian monsoon arriving early, several parts of the country have been receiving showers, unfortunately for cricket fans, on match days. 3 of 4 playoff places have been sealed by KKR, RR, and SRH. And the battle for the last playoff spot will take us to the final weekend of the regular season. CSK and RCB remain in contention for the final spot, with both teams in control of their own destiny, with CSK having a slight advantage. I will run you through all the combinations and equations that will allow either team to qualify, with a brief rundown of the playoffs.
What’s at Stake on Saturday?
A playoff spot, obviously. So what’s the equation? For Ruturaj Gaikwad’s Chennai Super Kings, it’s simple, win and go through. They can also qualify with a loss credit to their superior net run-rate (NRR). It’s been a season of ups and downs for the team in yellow, they won two, lost two, won two again, and then lost two again. But they’re still a team as good as any, and with the qualifier 2 and Finals in Chennai’s own backyard, anyone would be a fool to write them off.
What about the other team? The Royal Calculat… coughs Challengers Bangalore have marched back into playoff contention after a disastrous start, losing 7 out of the first 8 games, with 6 consecutive losses. They have played some of the best cricket in the league in their last 5 games, obliterating everyone. What seemed like an outside chance a week ago has been manifested into a real shot at a 4th place finish. Right, so what’s the equation? Without going into messy calculations, if they bat first, they will have to score 200 and defeat CSK by 18 runs or more. If they field first, they will need to chase down a target of around 201 in 18.1 overs. A win alone won’t suffice as they will have to supersede CSK’s NRR. But keep this in mind, Saturday’s fixture is at Chinnaswamy, and both of these equations aren’t improbable, they’re actually pretty practical and RCB will take this any day.
But this isn’t about qualifications alone, the stories go beyond a spot in the playoffs as this might be the last IPL game for a few icons of the league. If RCB fail to qualify, captain Faf du Plessis and Dinesh Karthik might call it a day and not come back for the next season. Faf is 39 and DK is 38. They will be 40 and 39 respectively by next season. Now they might still play, after all we’re seeing MS Dhoni still donning the yellow overalls at 43, but not everyone is MSD, and this might just be the last time we see these two icons play in this league.
If CSK fail to qualify, murmurs around MSD’s retirement will come to surface once again. And who knows, this might be the year MSD chooses to call it a day. We’ve seen him limp and hold his back after several games this season, and I am guessing it isn’t a pleasant experience constantly icing your ankles and knees between games. Cricket fans, including me, will hope this isn’t MSD’s last game, but if it is, Saturday is going to be an emotional day for the cricket fraternity.
So, let’s sum it up. For CSK to qualify, they need a win or a loss not satisfying RCB’s NRR requirements. For RCB to qualify, they need a win that satisfies their NRR requirements, a win otherwise or a loss means they get knocked out. Evidently, CSK have the advantage, and the champion mentality needed to win these battles, but either way, it promises to be an exciting battle.
Rain Rain Go Away
Here it is, rain is predicted to play spoilsport in tomorrow’s blockbuster fixture. According to the Indian Meteorological Department, there is a 73% chance of rain with thunderstorms in the evening. An update to the forecast from Dr. Pradeep Kushwaha (via X) suggested that Bengaluru should expect heavy rainfall in the next 36-48 hours. All signs point to a washout, and if the game does get washed out, CSK will qualify for the playoffs and RCB will be eliminated. Chinnaswamy does have a fine drainage system, but that is useful if the rains stop long enough for it to work. Whatever the result, RCB and RCB fans can be proud of the fightback the team has shown. But of course, all of India will be praying for the rains to stay away for a good 4-5 hours in the evening for the final playoff place shootout.
A look at the Playoffs
As it stands today, KKR, RR, and SRH have qualified for the playoffs. Qualifier 1 (KKR v P2) and Eliminator (P3 v P4) are scheduled to take place on May 21st and 22nd in Ahmedabad’s Narendra Modi Stadium. Thereafter, Qualifier 2 (Loser of Q1 v Winner of Eliminator) and the Finals will be hosted at Chepauk in Chennai. KKR are poised to finish top of the table after Rajasthan’s loss to Punjab on March 15. The Knight Riders are flying high with 5 wins, 1 loss, and 1 washout in their last 7 matches. With 1 game to go, these results have confirmed their first ever top of the table finish. They will miss the services of Phil Salt for the playoffs, but will hope Sunil Narine can score runs for Salt and himself.
Onto Rajasthan Royals, who’ve stumbled into a late-season slump similar to the previous seasons. They have now lost 4 on the trot after losing just one of their first 9 games. They too will miss their superstar batter Jos Butler. But, he hasn’t been all that this season and a change might just catalyze Rajasthan’s campaign. Yashasvi Jaiswal’s form is worrisome, he’s scored 348 runs in 13 innings, a decent campaign that has looked worse because of his outlandish England series in February-March. Their skipper Sanju Samson is in fine touch, so much so that he has found a spot in the final 15 going to the T20 World Cup in June. But their campaign has derailed evidently. Their average score has come down from 183.44 in the first 9 games to 171.5 in the last 4. Their run-rate has dropped from 9.54 through the first 9 games to 8.58 in the last 4. These are concerning signs for the team, but they played some fine cricket to start the season, and if they can rediscover their form, they will be a side to reckon.
Onto the team that has set the league on fire this season, Pat Cummins’ Sunrisers Hyderabad. Those early games where Travis Head and Abhishek Sharma were scorching bowling lineups still feel unreal. With a washout in their previous game, they sit on 15 points in 13 games with 7 wins, 6 losses and 1 no-result. They are still in contention for a top-2 finish if Rajasthan lose their final match and SRH manage to win. But things have quieted down in the last couple of weeks barring one ridiculous chase from the SRH openers where they chased down 167 in 9.4 overs. SRH have calmed down and so have their results. They are not burning hot going into the playoffs, but can take the game away on any given day.
The final weekend of the regular season is extremely important, the 4th playoff spot will be determined tomorrow and the race to 2nd place will end on Sunday. There are rains forecasted through the weekend and the next week, so let’s keep our fingers crossed for the covers to stay behind boundary ropes for the next week.
Very well written! Keeping the fingers crossed for the match to happen.